Will the OPEC Plus Output Increase Lower Fuel Prices in Early 2026? Here’s the Forecast

Mirror Review

November 03, 2025

The OPEC Plus (OPEC+) alliance is a group of 23 oil-producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and a core group of Middle Eastern producers.

Together, they control over 40% of the world’s crude oil supply, making OPEC+ the most influential price-setter in global energy markets.

Their production decisions directly determine the price of crude and, therefore, what consumers pay for petrol, diesel, aviation turbine fuel, plastics, and thousands of petroleum-derived goods.

On November 2, 2025, OPEC+ announced a 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) output increase for December 2025, but simultaneously declared a full pause on additional hikes during January, February, and March 2026.

This is not a typical expansion move. Instead, it’s a careful mix of:

• unwinding past voluntary cuts
• responding to rising supply from the U.S.
• and preparing for what the group believes will be a weak demand period and potential oversupply in early 2026.

So the big question for global fuel consumers is this: Will the OPEC Plus output increase lower fuel prices in early 2026?

1. Q1 2026 Demand Is Seasonally Weak  and OPEC+ Is Responding Accordingly

OPEC+ openly stated the January–March pause is due to “seasonality,” recognizing that global crude demand drops sharply in Q1 as:

• refineries undergo maintenance,
• holiday travel winds down,
• heating fuel use decreases,
• industrial activity slows in China and India.

Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen summarized the logic: “They don’t want to add barrels in a seasonally weak market.”

This slowdown happens every year, but in 2026, it coincides with rising supply from the U.S. and weaker global economic momentum. That combination magnifies the downward pressure on fuel prices.

2. OPEC+ and Independent Analysts Both Forecast a Clear Oversupply in Early 2026

This is not speculation. It is backed by two separate data sources:

• OPEC+ internal balances:

“Their balances are also showing builds in the first quarter,” said Amrita Sen.

A “build” means rising global inventories, which is the strongest signal of falling prices.

• External analyst forecasts:

Reuters projects a surplus ranging from 190,000 bpd to as much as 3 million bpd.

Even the lowest estimate is enough to push prices down. The highest estimate could take Brent below $58–$60 without intervention.

This alignment between OPEC’s own models and external market forecasts makes the early 2026 oversupply scenario virtually certain.

3. Record U.S. Production (13.8 Million bpd) Is Flooding the Market With Non-OPEC Supply

The United States oil production hit a new historic peak: “U.S. crude oil output rose 86,000 bpd to a record 13.8 million bpd.” — EIA

This matters because:

• The U.S. exports more crude to Asia and Europe than ever.
• American shale is price-insensitive at current levels.
• Higher U.S. output directly reduces the pricing power of OPEC+.

For 2026, this means global supply will keep rising regardless of the OPEC Plus output increase, dragging prices lower.

4. Asia’s Manufacturing Slowdown Is Weakening the World’s Biggest Demand Engine

Asia is the largest oil-consuming region, and its downturn is significant.

Reuters observed: “Headwinds for Asia’s big manufacturing hubs persisted… weak U.S. demand and tariffs hit factory orders across the region.”

This reduces demand for:

• diesel (trucking & logistics),
• jet fuel (business travel),
• petrochemical feedstocks (plastics, packaging, fertilizers),
• marine fuel (shipping).

When Asia slows, the world’s oil demand curve shifts downward. The result is a demand deficit right when supply is rising, the perfect setup for cheaper fuel in Q1 2026.

5. Markets Are Already Pricing in Lower Prices Proven by the $60 Brent Low

Even before the OPEC Plus output increase announcement, Brent crude fell to:

• $60 per barrel on October 20, 2025 (a 5-month low).
• Only rebounding to $65 after Russian sanction fears.

This price behavior confirms that traders expect:

• weaker demand,
• rising inventories,
• and a soft Q1 2026.

UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo reinforces this view: “Oil prices were unlikely to move much… the modest December production increase had been widely anticipated.”

Markets do not rise when demand is weak, and 2026 demand is projected to be the softest in Q1.

Key Numbers & Figures of the OPEC Plus Output Increase

These numbers provide the structural backdrop for the early 2026 price scenario.

So, Will Fuel Prices Drop in Early 2026? – Yes

Based on:

• OPEC+ internal forecasts
• global surplus predictions
• slowing Asian industrial demand
• recent oil price declines
• record U.S. production
• new constraints on Russia
• seasonally weak consumption in Q1

…the market setup overwhelmingly points toward lower fuel prices in early 2026.

The expected early-2026 crude price range is $60–$65 per barrel, possibly dipping below $60 if the surplus grows toward the higher end of projections.

Conclusion

The OPEC Plus output increase for December 2025 will not push fuel prices higher. Instead, OPEC+’s decision to immediately pause further increases in early 2026 reflects the group’s clear concern that global oil markets are heading toward oversupply.

Analyst commentary from Energy Aspects, Rystad Energy, UBS, and RBC Capital all point to weakening demand, especially in Asia, and rising inventories during the first quarter of 2026.

Combined with record U.S. production and Russia’s reduced ability to raise output due to sanctions, the supply outlook significantly outweighs expected consumption.

For these reasons, fuel prices are likely to decline during January–March 2026.

Unless OPEC+ resorts to fresh production cuts or geopolitical disruptions sharply reduce supply, consumers should anticipate noticeably lower fuel costs in the opening months of 2026.

Maria Isabel Rodrigues