Mirror Review
September 21, 2026
France’s public debt is projected to reach 119.3% of GDP in 2026, according to figures submitted by the French finance ministry for the government’s 2027 budget. The ratio is expected to rise further to 121.7% in 2027, while the 119.3% projection for 2026 would put France’s public debt at its highest level since 1978, according to the historical comparison reported by Insee.
The immediate driver is France’s large budget deficit. The government expects the deficit to reach 5.4% of GDP in 2026, compared with 5.1% in 2025. The government is therefore preparing €54 billion in savings measures for the 2027 budget, while aiming to reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP.
France Debt to GDP 2026 Is Projected to Reach 119.3%
The latest France debt to GDP projection marks another increase from already elevated levels.
Insee reported that France’s public debt stood at €3.536 trillion, or 117.5% of GDP, at the end of the first quarter of 2026. That was up from 115.7% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. The latest finance ministry projection of 119.3% for the full year therefore represents a further rise from the most recent official quarterly figure.
The France debt to GDP ratio was below 100% in 2019 and reached 115.7% in 2025. The current projection shows how quickly France’s debt has risen in 2026.
Why France’s Public Debt Is Rising
France’s debt has continued to increase because government spending and revenue have left the country with a large fiscal deficit.
The France debt to GDP 2025 figure was 115.7%, while the government expects the deficit to remain at 5.4% of GDP in 2026. A persistent deficit means the government needs to borrow to cover the gap between spending and revenue, adding to the stock of France government debt.
The comparison with 1978 is a historical one. Insee’s current quarterly Maastricht debt series begins in the fourth quarter of 1995, while its annual historical data covers earlier years. The 2026 projection is therefore best described as the highest level since 1978 in the historical comparison, rather than as part of one uninterrupted quarterly series.
Why France’s Borrowing Costs Matter
The debt increase is becoming more important because France is also facing higher borrowing costs.
The premium investors demand to hold French government bonds instead of German government bonds, known as the OAT-Bund spread, moved above 100 basis points in September. The spread exceeded one percentage point for the first time since the 2012 eurozone debt crisis. A wider spread can increase the cost of refinancing government debt as older bonds mature and new borrowing is issued.
This also puts attention on France’s debt rating. Fitch currently rates France at A+ with a stable outlook, while S&P rates it A+ with a stable outlook and Moody’s rates it Aa3 with a negative outlook, according to the French Treasury’s current rating table.
France has already experienced a debt downgrade from major rating agencies. Fitch and S&P both downgraded France from AA- to A+ in 2025.
What the €54 Billion 2027 Savings Plan Means
The government’s planned €54 billion savings drive is aimed at reducing the deficit from 5.4% of GDP in 2026 to 5% in 2027. That would slow the pace at which new borrowing adds to France’s national debt to GDP, but it would not immediately reduce the existing debt stock.
France is already subject to the European Union’s Excessive Deficit Procedure. EU fiscal rules retain reference values of 3% of GDP for government deficits and 60% for government debt, although the current framework also uses country-specific adjustment paths.
Is France Facing a Debt Crisis?
The latest figures do not by themselves establish a France debt crisis. France’s sovereign debt remains investment grade across the major agencies listed by the French Treasury. The combination of high debt, a large fiscal deficit, and higher financing costs makes debt stabilization more difficult.
For readers searching for France national debt, France public debt, or France total debt, the key distinction is that the current headline figure refers to general government debt measured under the Maastricht definition. Insee’s latest official figure was €3.536 trillion at the end of Q1 2026.
What Could Change France Debt to GDP 2026
The path of France’s debt will depend mainly on the size of future budget deficits, economic growth, interest rates and the government’s ability to deliver fiscal consolidation.
For now, the central figures are clear: France debt to GDP 2026 is projected at 119.3%, the deficit is expected at 5.4% of GDP, and debt is projected to rise to 121.7% in 2027. The next stage of the story will depend on whether the 2027 budget can reduce the deficit while limiting the additional financing pressure created by France’s growing debt burden.
Gurushanth S Jatti
